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MSTR MODLer
MSTR options projector

What is your MSTR position worth at any Bitcoin price?

Model your MSTR call option value across any Bitcoin scenario. Adjust BTC price, holdings, capital structure, and time to expiration to see what your position could be worth.

Black-Scholes pricing Full capital-stack mNAV Greeks included Any strike / expiry Built by a Bitcoiner
MSTR MODLer Pro

Stop typing contracts. Start comparing them.

Everything the free calculator already does, plus the tools for actually managing a real position.

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Pick from real contracts
Strike and expiration selected from currently-listed MSTR options — no more typing them in blind.
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Save your positions
Stop re-entering the same strike and expiry every time you check the tool.
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Compare scenarios side by side
Line up contracts under the same BTC scenario to see which one actually wins.
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Export to CSV
Pull your saved scenarios into a spreadsheet whenever you want to dig deeper.
$14.99/month after your trial — no card required to start.
Your position
Total $ you paid for this position — if you built it up over multiple purchases at different prices, just add them together (or enter your average cost per contract × number of contracts). Used to show your current and projected future gain/loss below.
→PROWant to pick from real, currently-listed strikes & expirations instead of typing them, plus save positions and get custom price alerts? Start your free 7-day trial →
Bitcoin & MSTR fundamentals
Drag a slider, or type into any field below, to explore a scenario — Bitcoin price, mNAV, and the eight fundamentals below all update the model live until you do.
Actual shares currently issued — used only for the "Strategy market cap" comparison card, matching how market cap is conventionally reported.
Basic shares plus options/RSUs and any in-the-money convertibles or STRK — this is what Strategy's own mNAV formula divides by, and what this model uses for Net value/share and mNAV below.
What Strategy owes per year to service the debt and preferred above — drives BTC Duration and USD Duration below. From the investor briefing, not weekly filings, so this updates less often than the other fundamentals.
Cash earmarked to cover debt and preferred stock payments — added to the total Bitcoin backing, partially counteracting what debt and preferred subtract from it.
General-purpose liquidity — not earmarked for debt/preferred payments the way USD Reserve is, but added back to the total Bitcoin backing the same way.
Defaults last updated: Sep 21, 2026 · Source: Strategy SEC 8-K & Investor Briefing · Basic shares ≈420.44M · BTC: 846,000
Pure Bitcoin-backed asset value — before the market's premium (mNAV) is applied.
Net value/share × mNAV — what the model estimates MSTR should actually trade at.
What MSTR is really trading at — for comparison against the model's estimate.
Volatility & rate
For strikes and expirations in our standard list, IV updates automatically from live market data during trading hours — you'll see a "Live IV for this contract" note above when that's active. For a manually-entered strike/expiration, or when markets are closed, 84% is a general starting assumption — check your brokerage's live quote for your exact contract, or look it up free on Yahoo Finance ↗ (no account needed) or Barchart ↗ (account required).
Enter the option's quoted price per share — the number your broker or options chain shows before multiplying by the 100-share contract size, e.g. "$22.50," not "$2,250." This back-solves the IV that produces it and shows how closely today's model assumptions track the real price.
→ PROIn Pro, this strike and expiration come from a real, currently-listed dropdown — no typing, and it's saved for next time. Start your free 7-day trial →
Quick scenarios
Results
Pricing based on MSTR share price: —
Implied mNAV vs derived price
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Strategy market cap
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Today, live
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Under this scenario
Bitcoin market cap
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Today, live
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Under this scenario
Intrinsic value / share
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Option price (Black-Scholes)
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Value per contract
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100 shares × option price
Total position value
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Your return
Enter your cost basis above to see your current and projected P&L here.
Δ
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Delta — per $1 move
Γ
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Gamma — Δ change / $1
Θ
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Theta — per day decay
ν
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Vega — per 1% IV
Strategy balance-sheet health, under this scenario's Bitcoin price and fundamentals:
Amp
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Amplification — BTC Reserve / Net Reserve
Rtg
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BTC Rating — Net Reserve / market cap
₿yr
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BTC Duration — years of BTC Reserve vs. Cost of Capital
$yr
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USD Duration — years of USD Assets vs. Cost of Capital
Value over time
Your total position's value between now and expiration, assuming BTC price and mNAV hold at today's current scenario levels — isolates time decay from price movement. Chart powered by TradingView Lightweight Charts.
Your Saved Positions
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PROSave this exact scenario — strike, expiry, BTC price, mNAV, IV, and the computed results — to come back to later.

Methodology

Net BTC per share is calculated as:

(BTC held × BTC price − convertible debt − preferred stock + USD reserve + USD cash) ÷ fully diluted shares outstanding (FDSO)

This mirrors Strategy's own published capital-structure accounting, including its official mNAV methodology as of July 23, 2026: common shareholders have a residual claim on the Bitcoin treasury, standing behind both convertible debt and the STRK/STRF/STRD/STRC preferred stack, and the per-share denominator is Strategy's Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding — basic shares plus options, RSUs, and any in-the-money convertibles or STRK — not basic shares alone. Earlier versions of this tool only netted out convertible debt against basic shares, which overstated fair value per share by roughly 30% at current prices.

The derived MSTR price is then net value per share × mNAV multiple. Option pricing uses Black-Scholes as a European-style approximation for MSTR's American-style calls — early exercise is rarely optimal for a non-dividend-paying stock, so the approximation is close in practice.

Disclaimer

This tool is for educational and informational purposes only. It uses the Black-Scholes model, which is designed for European-style options; MSTR calls are American-style, so actual market prices may differ. MSTR price is derived from BTC holdings and a user-supplied mNAV multiple — this is a model assumption, not a prediction. Implied volatility for long-dated, deep out-of-the-money contracts is illiquid and can vary meaningfully from theoretical values — check a live quote where possible. Nothing here constitutes financial advice. Do your own research.